STUDY LINKS COFFE CERTIFICATION TO SH116 BILLION EXPORT GROWTH POTENTIAL

Dr. Martin Ambrose Mutua conducts a coffee cupping session during his research on coffee certification, quality management and farmer training aimed at boosting Kenya's coffee exports (photo credits).

By: Gladys Karuga

Kenya's coffee industry could experience a major turnaround if certification systems are strengthened, with new research projecting the sector could generate an additional Sh116 billion in export earnings while significantly improving farmers' incomes, production and access to premium international markets.

The findings are contained in a doctoral study by Dr Martin Ambrose Mutua of Kenyatta University, which examined coffee certification projects in Kiambu County. The research, based on responses from 300 participants, concludes that effective quality management, farmer training and compliance with sustainability standards are central to rebuilding the country's coffee sector.

The study notes that although Kenya earned Sh38.4 billion from coffee exports in 2024, representing a 12 per cent increase from the previous year, national production remains far below the record levels achieved in the early 1980s. According to the research, addressing weaknesses in quality management and certification could help restore the industry's competitiveness.

Dr Mutua found that farmers operating under structured certification systems recorded better coffee quality, fewer production losses and greater access to premium export markets.

"Farmers applying structured quality systems including compliance checks, process standardisation and buyer feedback integration reported higher cupping scores, reduced production wastage and premium market access. Quality is the entry ticket to international buyers. Without it, certifications are just papers," he said.

The research also established that sustainable farming practices, including planting shade trees, conserving soil, improving water management and protecting biodiversity, resulted in more stable coffee yields and stronger compliance with certification requirements.

The study highlights capacity building as one of the strongest drivers of successful certification. Farmers who received structured training reported fewer production mistakes, achieved higher certification compliance rates and consistently met project timelines.

One example cited is Baragwi Cooperative, which increased coffee production from 5,000 tonnes to 15,000 tonnes after implementing Rainforest Alliance certification and comprehensive farmer training. During the same period, cooperative membership grew from 11,000 to 25,000 farmers, demonstrating the impact of investing in farmer skills.

The study further identifies market access as a key determinant of certification success, with digital market platforms, certification funding and buyer linkages accounting for 84.2 per cent of the variation in certification benefits.

"Price premiums, certification funding and buyer linkages amplify the project implementation returns of all certification work. Without functional digital market infrastructure, certified farmers cannot convert compliance into income," Dr Mutua said.

Kenya currently produces around 50,000 tonnes of green coffee each year. The government's National Coffee Value Chain Development Strategy aims to increase production to 200,000 tonnes of clean coffee by 2030, a target the study says can only be achieved through stronger certification systems and sustained policy support.

According to the research, expanding certified green coffee production to 150,000 tonnes could generate approximately Sh116 billion (US$900 million) in foreign exchange earnings by 2030.

"Scaling to 150,000 tonnes of certified green coffee at current premium prices projects forex earnings of approximately Sh116 billion (US$900 million) by 2030," Dr Mutua said.

He added that certification has the potential to elevate coffee's contribution to the national economy.

"Coffee could rise from the current fifth position in foreign exchange earnings to directly challenging horticulture and tea. A three-times volume multiplier with certification premiums of 15 to 30 per cent above commodity prices is conservative," he said.

The research estimates that expanding coffee production and certification could support more than three million livelihoods while creating over 500,000 jobs in processing, logistics, cooperative management and certification compliance.

To achieve these outcomes, Dr Mutua recommends institutionalising quality management within all certification programmes, introducing pricing incentives for quality compliance, establishing a national quality monitoring and evaluation framework and making structured farmer training a mandatory component of certification.

"This is because quality management accounts for the highest share of implementation variance in this study; policy must reflect that primacy," he said.

The study also recommends increased investment in digital coffee market platforms, stronger collaboration among cooperatives, certification bodies and government agencies, and stricter enforcement of sustainability standards supported by appropriate incentives and accountability measures.

The research concludes that a coordinated approach centred on certification, quality improvement and farmer empowerment could restore Kenya's position as a leading producer of premium coffee while increasing export earnings, creating employment and delivering long-term benefits to coffee-growing communities.